From vague title to power post: why this vacancy matters now
The UK doesn’t have a formal line of succession. That oddity is why the Deputy Prime Minister can be both everything and nothing—an empty title in quiet times, a ballast when the ship starts leaning. Reports that Angela Rayner has stepped down as Deputy Prime Minister and as Housing Secretary have turned a role once mocked as a “non‑job” into the defining test of how Keir Starmer runs his government.
In practice, the Deputy PM is only as influential as the Prime Minister allows. John Prescott had real clout under Tony Blair, acting as a fixer across transport, devolution, and party management. Nick Clegg, in coalition, chaired key committees and pushed constitutional reform. Dominic Raab became the public face of continuity when Boris Johnson was in intensive care. Under Rishi Sunak, Oliver Dowden was the government’s chief firefighter, fronting crises and keeping the Cabinet machine moving. The title means little on paper but a lot when things go wrong.
What makes this vacancy more than a Westminster parlour game is the policy load it carries. Rayner didn’t just hold a symbolic brief. She ran housing and planning—a portfolio at the centre of the cost‑of‑living crunch, business investment, and the basic question of where people can afford to live. Whoever takes over will inherit stalled local plans, pressures on social housing, and an impatient electorate that wants new homes built without trashing the green belt.
The trigger for the change is politically messy. Rayner has faced questions over property tax matters connected to past transactions. The headlines blur terms—stamp duty is paid when buying; capital gains tax can be due on profits from selling. Either way, the politics are the same: when a senior figure comes under tax scrutiny, it erodes authority fast. Once that happens, a Prime Minister either doubles down with full backing or moves quickly to reset. The talk in Westminster is that a reset is coming, and that it will be bigger than one job title.
There are two moving parts here. First, the government posts: Deputy PM and Housing Secretary are in the Prime Minister’s gift, decided by reshuffle. Second, the party post: if Rayner also vacates the role of Labour’s deputy leader, that triggers a formal election within the party. The government switch can happen overnight. The party contest cannot. And those timelines matter.
On the government side, Starmer has choices. He can keep the roles together, signalling a clear political driver for housing and planning. Or he can split them, giving a heavyweight the deputy title to steady the ship and a policy specialist the housing brief to push legislation. Splitting would ease workload and de‑risk the portfolio. Keeping them together would send a punchier message: housing is the priority and the deputy has the authority to deliver.
On the party side, the deputy leader election is a different beast. Labour’s rules require nominations from MPs, then a members’ ballot using preferential voting. Trade union endorsements matter. So do constituency party networks and media cut‑through. The winner won’t be decided by a quick huddle in Downing Street but by weeks of hustings and ground game. That contest will define the party’s balance between its soft‑left mainstream, social democrats focused on fiscal caution, and campaigners pushing faster change on housing, workers’ rights, and public services.
Names will fly around quickly. In government, the shortlist will lean toward people with Cabinet time and a reputation for delivery. In the party, expect MPs with organising muscle and union ties to test the waters. The two lists won’t necessarily match. That divergence is part of the risk: a government deputy who calms markets and an elected party deputy who rallies the base can complement each other—or clash.
The stakes are highest on housing. The next Housing Secretary will pick up a crowded in‑tray: planning reform to unlock building in high‑demand areas; targets for local authorities; incentives for brownfield regeneration; renters’ protections to reduce no‑fault evictions; and a decision on whether to tweak property taxes that distort the market. Stamp duty reliefs, council tax banding, land value capture—none of this is simple, and any change creates winners and losers. Get it wrong and you spook first‑time buyers, small landlords, and local councils all at once. Get it right and you unlock growth without triggering a political backlash in the suburbs.
Inside No. 10, the calculus is wider than housing. The Deputy PM often acts as the Prime Minister’s political chief of staff in public—corralling ministers, chairing committees, managing parliamentary votes, and fronting awkward interviews when the PM needs distance. With a busy legislative calendar and a thin majority in some areas, the government needs a reliable operator to keep the show on the road.
So what will the replacement actually have to deliver? Three buckets, quickly:
- Policy: move planning reform from Whitehall statements to shovels in the ground; balance renters’ protections with supply; keep housebuilding targets credible without a revolt from local councillors.
- Politics: steady relations with unions; keep backbenchers onside; show grip in interviews; be a visible presence outside London and the South East.
- Delivery: unblock projects stuck in legal limbo; speed up determinations at planning inspectorate level; set milestones the public can see—new affordable homes started, brownfield sites approved, and social housing repairs funded.
Expect Starmer to sequence this in two steps. First, a tidy reshuffle to fill the government jobs quickly, signalling stability. Second, a hands‑off approach to any party deputy leadership contest, allowing members to choose while quietly urging a candidate who can work with No. 10. That approach avoids the look of a stitch‑up but still aims for a workable pairing at the top.
Timing matters. Markets and housebuilders watch for policy hints—targets, green belt language, infrastructure budgets. Councils need clarity before setting local plans. Voters have little patience for churn. The longer the uncertainty drags, the harder it is to pass difficult housing bills and the easier it is for opponents to brand the government as distracted.
There’s a communications test too. The new Deputy PM will be judged on whether they can explain the trade‑offs—why more homes need to be built near transport hubs, why some green belt swaps are justified, why renters need stability without scaring off investment. Clear, simple language beats grand pledges here. The task is to keep the public with you when the diggers move in.
What about the optics? Appointing a Deputy PM with strong ties to local government would reassure councillors who fear that targets will trump community input. Picking a Housing Secretary with a track record on regeneration would tell business the government is serious about delivery. And if the party elects a deputy leader who can campaign in marginal seats without alienating core supporters, Labour gets a rare win‑win: a competent machine in Whitehall and an energised base in the country.
Strip away the noise and it comes to this: the “non‑job” now carries the weight of two big challenges—running the politics of government day to day and fixing the housing mess fast. The people Starmer chooses, and the person the party elects if it comes to that, will shape not just the next reshuffle but the feel of this government for the rest of the parliament.
The road ahead: reshuffle choices, policy priorities, and party dynamics
Here are the choices on Starmer’s desk right now:
- Keep or split the roles: a single heavyweight to hold both Deputy PM and Housing Secretary, or a political operator paired with a policy specialist.
- Signal or stability: a headline appointment to grab attention, or a safe pair of hands to calm the system.
- Central control or delegated delivery: manage housing reform from No. 10, or empower a Cabinet minister to drive it with clear targets and regular check‑ins.
And here are the priorities that will test the new setup within months:
- Planning reform bill: get it drafted tightly enough to survive the Lords and the courts, while still making it worth the fight.
- Renters’ protections: land a package that cuts evictions, speeds up courts, and keeps supply from collapsing.
- Local plans: push councils to adopt up‑to‑date plans, with support for staffing and data so they can say yes to good applications faster.
- Investment signals: line up infrastructure and brownfield funding so housebuilders and housing associations can schedule work with confidence.
This is one of those moments when the machinery of government and the politics of a movement collide. Fill the jobs well and the government regains momentum on the issue voters feel day to day—where they live and what they pay for it. Mishandle it and “non‑job” will be the least of anyone’s worries.
